Carolina, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

975
FXUS61 KBOX 040457
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1157 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain this evening and continues into the first half of the night. A
cold front passes through overnight, ending the rain and bringing a
period of gusty winds through Tuesday. A series of cold fronts pass
through southern New England throughout the week into the weekend,
leading to more unsettled conditions. These will likely be followed
by periods of dry weather between fronts as high pressure briefly
creeps in between them.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:

* Showers this evening, drying out overnight with gusty winds.

Early this afternoon a mid-level southern stream shortwave moves
across the waters of southern New England, leading to areas of light
rain mainly across coastal Rhode Island, southeast Massachusetts,
Cape cod, and the islands. Next round of showers comes as a cold
front associated with a robust mid-level trough and surface low
pressure moving across eastern Canada. Southwesterly flow increases
Pwats between 0.8" to 1.0", enough moisture for periods of rainfall
late this evening. Convection-Allowing Models (cams) shows a line of
heavier showers moving quickly across the region from west to east,
arriving to western massachusetts between 5pm/7pm and exiting the
coast around midnight. Greatest rainfall, likely 0.25" to 0.50"
falls along and east of the I-95 corridor, while areas west
generally receive 0.10" or less.

The cold front brings gusty northwest flow due to cold air advection
(CAA), 925mb wind field are between 40 and 50 knots. Bufkit sounding
mix down gusts of 25 to 35 mph, a tad stronger on Cape Cod and the
islands with gusts of 35-45 mph.

Low temperatures range between the upper 30s to middle 40s, cooler
in the lower 30s across higher terrain of northwestern Massachusetts.

Given the overall lighter rates and progressive nature of the
system, flash flooding isn`t a concern. However, leaf-clogged storm
drains this time of year may factor in and keep the risk for
isolated nuisance flooding/ponding possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Strong wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph expected through Tuesday.

Sunshine returns Tuesday, though it`s windy, coming in the wake of a
departing cold front/low pressure system and strong high pressure
building to the southwest... Resulting in a robust pressure gradient
Across the northeast.

Full sunshine helps to deepen the boundary layer and tap into those
stronger gusts aloft. Bufkit is well-mixed to 850mb+, where winds
are 45 to 55 knots. With northwest flow, it`s possible to tap into
the stronger gusts and transfer them to the surface. Thinking that
most of the area experiences gusts between 30 and 40 mph, with the
strongest gusts across eastern-half of southern New England; such as
the islands, Cape Cod where gusts are between 40-50 mph.

* Wind Advisory 10pm Mon to 7pm Tue: Nantucket, Martha`s Vineyard,
  Cape Cod, and Block Island for gusts up to 50 mph.

* Wind Advisory 4am to 7pm Tue: All of eastern Massachusetts and
  Rhode Island for gusts up to 45 mph.

Jet diminishes Tuesday evening, winds at the surface slacken into
Tuesday night. Strongest winds exit the region by midnight, leaving
wind gusts around 15 to 20 mph the rest of the night.

Temperaturewise, highs are middle 50s and nighttime lows in the
middle to upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Unsettled pattern with a series of cold fronts passing through
  during the week into the weekend with periods of dry weather
  between them during the day

* Gusty winds post-front Wednesday night into Thursday

* Mostly seasonable temperatures through the week with highs
  mostly in the 50s, occasionally dipping into the 40s

A generally unsettled pattern is expected through the week into the
weekend interspersed with periods of dry weather. The first of the
frontal systems is expected to pass through Wednesday night into
Thursday morning as a low passes over New England. Ahead of the
front, S to SW flow will help advect in slightly warmer, more moist
air. This with the lift from the front will produce some showers for
a short period. Showers may be out of the region heading into the
later morning hours Thursday. In the front`s wake, gusty NW winds
are expected to dominate much of Thursday, especially with clearing
skies and good mixing. Winds diminish going into Thursday night as
high pressure begins to creep in from the SW.

Another frontal system pushes through Friday night, bringing another
chance for some showers heading into the weekend. NAEFS guidance is
indicating IVT reaching the 90th percentile of climatology over
southern New England Friday night, lining up with elevated S flow
with WAA (925 mb temperatures approach 10C in this period once
again). Ensemble mean PWAT values range between 0.8" and 0.95" pre-
frontal passage; so with this elevated moisture and the approaching
front, more showers are expected. High pressure returns once again
to dry things out briefly heading into Sunday before another system
pushes through heading into Monday. Through the whole week into the
weekend, high temperatures are expected to remain primarily in the
40s and 50s behind the fronts, with some spots reaching the low 60s
towards the southern coastlines and even up into SE MA ahead of the
cold fronts amidst WAA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.


Tonight... High confidence.

Bulk of the -SHRA has come to an end across the area. A few
patchy showers are possible through 07z. Gusty WNW winds develop behind
the front. Gusts 25 to 35 knots. Quick improvements to VFR
behind front.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night... High confidence.

VFR. Gusty WNW winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts 25 to 35 knots,
strongest over higher terrain and coastal areas to 40 knots. Wind
slackens 02z to 06z Wednesday, gusts falling lower than 20 knots.

KBOS Terminal... High confidence.

KBDL Terminal... High confidence.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong
winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Chance RA.

Thursday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt.

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Friday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. RA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. RA
likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Key Messages:

* Gale Warning brings strong NNW wind tonight through Tuesday.

Monday through Tuesday Night... High confidence.

Robust cold front brings WNW Gale Force winds of 30 and 40 knots to
all waters surrounding southern New England tonight and continuing
though Tuesday evening.

The passage of the cold front brings showers this evening, but will
quickly dry out overnight. Seas build overnight into Tuesday with
seas nearshore 3 to 6 feet and offshore 6 to 9 feet. Seas will begin
to decrease Tuesday night.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Wednesday Night: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Areas
of rough seas. Chance of rain.

Thursday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
45 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Rain likely.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for MAZ004>007-
     012>021-026.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for MAZ022>024.
RI...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for RIZ001>007.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for RIZ008.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ230>237-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dooley/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Dooley
SHORT TERM...Dooley
LONG TERM...Hrencecin
AVIATION...FT
MARINE...Dooley/Hrencecin